Analysis and commentary on the business of technology

The Bay Table

From ZIRP to SVB to Figma, and the teenagers asking whether college is worth the wait.

Money, manias and the young

  • Startups raised more in nine months of 2021 than in any full year before, on money that was about to get dearer.
  • Washington was right to protect SVB's depositors; startups should learn the lesson the rescue cannot teach.
  • Figma's debut shows public investors want good startups, and that bankers still struggle to price them.

Money was cheap for a decade, and the habits it taught have outlived the money. This week's pieces follow venture capital from the excess of 2021 to the rescue of Silicon Valley Bank and the debut of Figma, and ask what each episode taught founders and what it did not. Terman's columns turn to the young, and three of them ask whether leaving college early still pays.

Leaders

  1. NFTs and ownership

    An NFT buys a receipt, not a picture

    Beeple’s $69.3m collage buys a novel but overpriced receipt for a picture anyone can still see, and buyers should be told exactly what it covers.

  2. Archegos and the banks

    Margin for error

    Archegos shows that only the banks could see a family office’s leveraged swaps, so the law should make them report what they see.

  3. Rivian’s listing

    Rivian’s investors are buying a story

    Investors who pay a Detroit-sized price for a firm that has delivered 156 pickups are buying a story, and should demand that the story be audited like a factory.

  4. Algorithmic stablecoins

    Stablecoins should hold the dollar they promise

    Congress should stop letting tokens that promise a dollar without holding one call themselves stable, and write rules by what a coin promises rather than by who issues it.

  5. Klarna and credit

    Klarna is a lender after all

    Klarna’s listing at a third of its private-market peak shows that buy-now-pay-later is a lender’s business, and its customers and regulators should treat it as one

Business & Finance

  1. Student founders · Terman

    Most founders should not drop out

    Student debt makes skipping university look shrewd, but the best evidence says successful founders are closer to 45 than 19, so the case for dropping out is narrower than its fans claim.

  2. WeWork · Giannini

    Out of office

    The collapse of WeWork’s flotation is not a failure of public markets but their finest hour: investors read the prospectus and declined.

  3. Campuses close · Terman

    Universities must itemise their bill

    The class of 2020 is learning that a degree bundles a lecture with a place and a crowd, and universities should now say which parts of the bill they are still delivering.

  4. Quibi · Giannini

    Quibi never asked its audience

    Quibi’s failure is not a verdict on short video but on a business that spent $1.75bn before asking anyone what they wanted.

  5. Retail trading · Giannini

    Short changed

    Robinhood’s curbs on GameStop were forced by plumbing, not conspiracy, but a market whose settlement lags its apps has no business promising instant access.

  6. SPACs and the SEC · Giannini

    Let the SPAC boom cool

    The SEC staff’s warrant ruling is a footnote with teeth, and the SPAC boom should be allowed to cool under it.

  7. Coinbase’s listing · Giannini

    Going direct

    Coinbase has shown that a company can go public without paying a bank to guess its price, but the first day showed how much guessing the market itself does.

  8. Venture capital · Giannini

    The venture boom rests on cheap money

    Startups have raised more in nine months than in any full year before, and the boom rests on a price of money that is about to change.

  9. FTX · Giannini

    Token gesture

    FTX’s collapse needs no new crypto law, only the enforcement of old rules about whose money is whose, and a little more suspicion from investors.

  10. ChatGPT in schools · Terman

    Schools should teach ChatGPT, not ban it

    New York’s ban on ChatGPT protects nothing it claims to protect, and schools would do better to teach pupils to catch the bot’s mistakes than to pretend it is not there.

  11. Skipping university · Terman

    A degree is still the better bet

    Americans are leaving college and starting firms at record rates, and cheap AI will make that trade more tempting, but a degree remains the better bet for most would-be founders.

  12. Silicon Valley Bank · Giannini

    A run for their money

    Washington was right to protect SVB’s depositors, but startups should learn the lesson that rescue cannot teach them.

  13. Instacart’s IPO · Giannini

    The IPO window opens, at a price

    Instacart’s listing proves that the window for technology flotations is open again, but only for firms willing to accept what the market will pay.

  14. Bitcoin ETFs · Giannini

    The SEC should own its bitcoin decision

    The SEC was right to let spot bitcoin ETFs trade, but it should stop pretending a court did not force its hand.

  15. Reddit’s IPO · Giannini

    Reddit lets users in, not in charge

    Reddit was right to let its users buy in, but a flotation that leaves control with insiders is a poll in which only some votes count.

  16. Thiel Fellowship · Terman

    Students are right to stay on campus

    Peter Thiel has doubled the price of dropping out just as AI makes small teams mighty, yet students are drifting back to campus, and on the evidence they are right to.

  17. Initial public offerings · Giannini

    Bankers still cannot price startups

    Figma’s dazzling debut shows that public investors want good startups, and that bankers still struggle to price them.

  18. AI and young workers · Terman

    Too early to regulate AI over jobs

    A Stanford study finds that young workers in AI-exposed jobs are being hired less, which is worth taking seriously, but the evidence is too thin to justify rules against the technology.

Policy & Regulation

  1. Foreign students and America · Terman

    America should keep its foreign students

    America nearly told 1.1m international students to go home over a technicality, and the founders it would have lost are worth far more than the rule’s tidiness.

  2. Student loans and the courts · Terman

    Congress should fix student lending

    The Supreme Court was right to stop the president cancelling $400bn of student debt alone, and Congress should now fix the lending that created it rather than bill taxpayers.

  3. California’s school phones · Terman

    California’s phone rule goes far enough

    California is right to make every district write a phone policy and right to stop there, because future founders will need their attention more than their apps.

  4. Australia’s social-media ban · Terman

    Australia’s teen ban came too soon

    Australia’s under-16 ban answers a real collective-action problem, but it fines platforms for an age check nobody has yet shown can work, and should have waited for the trial.

Youth

  1. Teens and chatbots

    Chatbot homework is not a cheating epidemic

    More than half of American teenagers now use chatbots for schoolwork, and schools that treat this as a cheating epidemic are measuring the wrong thing.

  2. Anysphere and Cursor

    Cursor’s moat was thin

    Four MIT students built one of the fastest-growing software firms on record, then sold it to a buyer with its own models, which shows how thin the moat was.

  3. Prediction markets

    Kalshi’s age limit misses the point

    Raising Kalshi’s minimum age to 21 would be tidy but beside the point, because the product is a federally licensed sportsbook and its youngest customers are its smallest problem.

  4. AI side hustles

    Selling the shovels

    The surest earner in the AI-business boom is the person selling the course, and young would-be founders should price the pitch by the regulators’ record, not by the screenshots.

  5. Teen fintech

    Teen banking apps buy future customers

    Teen banking apps teach money management barely better than financial education ever has, and their real product is a customer who stays past 18.

Student founders. Student debt makes skipping university look shrewd, but the best evidence says successful founders are closer to 45 than 19, so the case for dropping out is narrower than its fans claim. Read more on Most founders should not drop out

WeWork. The collapse of WeWork’s flotation is not a failure of public markets but their finest hour: investors read the prospectus and declined. Read more on Out of office

Campuses close. The class of 2020 is learning that a degree bundles a lecture with a place and a crowd, and universities should now say which parts of the bill they are still delivering. Read more on Universities must itemise their bill

Foreign students and America. America nearly told 1.1m international students to go home over a technicality, and the founders it would have lost are worth far more than the rule’s tidiness. Read more on America should keep its foreign students

Quibi. Quibi’s failure is not a verdict on short video but on a business that spent $1.75bn before asking anyone what they wanted. Read more on Quibi never asked its audience

Retail trading. Robinhood’s curbs on GameStop were forced by plumbing, not conspiracy, but a market whose settlement lags its apps has no business promising instant access. Read more on Short changed

NFTs and ownership. Beeple’s $69.3m collage buys a novel but overpriced receipt for a picture anyone can still see, and buyers should be told exactly what it covers. Read more on An NFT buys a receipt, not a picture

Archegos and the banks. Archegos shows that only the banks could see a family office’s leveraged swaps, so the law should make them report what they see. Read more on Margin for error

SPACs and the SEC. The SEC staff’s warrant ruling is a footnote with teeth, and the SPAC boom should be allowed to cool under it. Read more on Let the SPAC boom cool

Coinbase’s listing. Coinbase has shown that a company can go public without paying a bank to guess its price, but the first day showed how much guessing the market itself does. Read more on Going direct

Venture capital. Startups have raised more in nine months than in any full year before, and the boom rests on a price of money that is about to change. Read more on The venture boom rests on cheap money

Rivian’s listing. Investors who pay a Detroit-sized price for a firm that has delivered 156 pickups are buying a story, and should demand that the story be audited like a factory. Read more on Rivian’s investors are buying a story

Algorithmic stablecoins. Congress should stop letting tokens that promise a dollar without holding one call themselves stable, and write rules by what a coin promises rather than by who issues it. Read more on Stablecoins should hold the dollar they promise

FTX. FTX’s collapse needs no new crypto law, only the enforcement of old rules about whose money is whose, and a little more suspicion from investors. Read more on Token gesture

ChatGPT in schools. New York’s ban on ChatGPT protects nothing it claims to protect, and schools would do better to teach pupils to catch the bot’s mistakes than to pretend it is not there. Read more on Schools should teach ChatGPT, not ban it

Skipping university. Americans are leaving college and starting firms at record rates, and cheap AI will make that trade more tempting, but a degree remains the better bet for most would-be founders. Read more on A degree is still the better bet

Silicon Valley Bank. Washington was right to protect SVB’s depositors, but startups should learn the lesson that rescue cannot teach them. Read more on A run for their money

Student loans and the courts. The Supreme Court was right to stop the president cancelling $400bn of student debt alone, and Congress should now fix the lending that created it rather than bill taxpayers. Read more on Congress should fix student lending

Instacart’s IPO. Instacart’s listing proves that the window for technology flotations is open again, but only for firms willing to accept what the market will pay. Read more on The IPO window opens, at a price

Bitcoin ETFs. The SEC was right to let spot bitcoin ETFs trade, but it should stop pretending a court did not force its hand. Read more on The SEC should own its bitcoin decision

Reddit’s IPO. Reddit was right to let its users buy in, but a flotation that leaves control with insiders is a poll in which only some votes count. Read more on Reddit lets users in, not in charge

California’s school phones. California is right to make every district write a phone policy and right to stop there, because future founders will need their attention more than their apps. Read more on California’s phone rule goes far enough

Australia’s social-media ban. Australia’s under-16 ban answers a real collective-action problem, but it fines platforms for an age check nobody has yet shown can work, and should have waited for the trial. Read more on Australia’s teen ban came too soon

Thiel Fellowship. Peter Thiel has doubled the price of dropping out just as AI makes small teams mighty, yet students are drifting back to campus, and on the evidence they are right to. Read more on Students are right to stay on campus

Initial public offerings. Figma’s dazzling debut shows that public investors want good startups, and that bankers still struggle to price them. Read more on Bankers still cannot price startups

AI and young workers. A Stanford study finds that young workers in AI-exposed jobs are being hired less, which is worth taking seriously, but the evidence is too thin to justify rules against the technology. Read more on Too early to regulate AI over jobs

Klarna and credit. Klarna’s listing at a third of its private-market peak shows that buy-now-pay-later is a lender’s business, and its customers and regulators should treat it as one Read more on Klarna is a lender after all

Teens and chatbots. More than half of American teenagers now use chatbots for schoolwork, and schools that treat this as a cheating epidemic are measuring the wrong thing. Read more on Chatbot homework is not a cheating epidemic

Anysphere and Cursor. Four MIT students built one of the fastest-growing software firms on record, then sold it to a buyer with its own models, which shows how thin the moat was. Read more on Cursor’s moat was thin

Prediction markets. Raising Kalshi’s minimum age to 21 would be tidy but beside the point, because the product is a federally licensed sportsbook and its youngest customers are its smallest problem. Read more on Kalshi’s age limit misses the point

AI side hustles. The surest earner in the AI-business boom is the person selling the course, and young would-be founders should price the pitch by the regulators’ record, not by the screenshots. Read more on Selling the shovels

Teen fintech. Teen banking apps teach money management barely better than financial education ever has, and their real product is a customer who stays past 18. Read more on Teen banking apps buy future customers