Analysis and commentary on the business of technology

The Bay Table

Washington rewrites the rules of silicon, then buys a piece of it.

Chips, states and the AI bill

  • America's rule on Huawei's chips is a clever weapon that teaches the world to build around American tools.
  • Sweeping chip controls on China make strategic sense, but only one government stands behind them.
  • Washington's stake in Intel should come with a public timetable to sell.

Export controls are becoming industrial policy by other means. This week we look at America's rule on Huawei's chips, at the wider restrictions on China that only one government stands behind, and at Washington's stake in Intel, which should come with a date for its sale. We also ask what a cheap Chinese model does, and does not, change about the cost of building artificial intelligence.

Leaders

  1. AI and electricity

    Make data centres buy their own power

    Microsoft’s Three Mile Island restart is the right way for a data centre to buy power, and regulators should make it the rule so households stop footing the bill.

  2. Stargate and AI spending

    Judge Stargate by what gets built

    Stargate’s $500bn is a promise, not a budget, and America should judge it by the data centres that get built and keep Washington out of the cheque-writing

  3. TSMC in Arizona

    Count the wafers, not the pledges

    Tariff-driven factory pledges buy goodwill and a headline, not wafers, so Washington should demand schedules and count each dollar once.

  4. Chips and China

    Duty free

    An export licence is a judgement about security, not a toll, and a government that takes 15% of what it permits has a reason to permit more.

  5. Intel and the state

    Government inside

    Washington’s stake in Intel should be a short loan of patience, with a public timetable to sell, not a permanent seat at the chipmaker’s table

  6. Nexperia and the state

    Dutch courage

    The Netherlands was right to stop Nexperia moving its crown jewels abroad, but should give the intervention a deadline and a proper legal home instead of a scarcity law.

Business & Finance

  1. AMD and Xilinx · Giannini

    Let AMD buy Xilinx

    AMD is right to pay in its own richly valued shares for Xilinx, and regulators should let a deal that makes Intel’s life harder go through.

  2. Nvidia and Arm · Giannini

    Arm’s length

    Regulators were right to stop Nvidia buying Arm, but the next owner of a chip standard should be one that every rival can trust.

  3. Nvidia · Giannini

    Nvidia does not own the AI boom

    Nvidia’s guidance proves the AI boom is real, but no single supplier should be priced as if it owns the whole of it.

  4. Arm’s flotation · Giannini

    Arm is fairly priced but lopsided

    Arm’s return to the stockmarket is a fair price for a great business, but SoftBank is selling a toll road with a lot of its traffic in one lane.

  5. OpenAI’s funding round · Giannini

    OpenAI’s investors pay up and hedge

    OpenAI’s investors are paying a record price for a company that does not yet make money, and have written a fallback into the contract.

  6. Intel’s chief executive · Giannini

    Intel’s board should split the firm

    Pat Gelsinger’s departure leaves Intel with the same problem and two interim bosses, and the board should use the gap to split the firm.

  7. DeepSeek and Nvidia · Giannini

    Less is Moore

    A cheap Chinese model has rattled the AI trade, but it makes computing cheaper rather than pointless, and the bill for the boom will still be paid

  8. CoreWeave and the AI-cloud trade · Giannini

    CoreWeave tests the AI-cloud business

    CoreWeave’s cut-price flotation is a fair test of whether renting out Nvidia chips is a business or merely a boom, and one customer is sitting the exam for it.

Policy & Regulation

  1. Huawei and TSMC · Warren

    America’s chip weapon wears out with use

    America’s new rule on Huawei’s chips is a clever weapon, but each use of it teaches the world to build around American tools

  2. Section 230 · Warren

    Trump cannot rewrite Section 230 by order

    Mr Trump’s order asks a regulator to rewrite a law that Congress wrote plainly, and if it worked it would make platforms more cautious editors, not more neutral ones.

  3. The CHIPS Act · Warren

    Pay for fabs, then stop

    America is right to pay for chip factories, but the tax credit will do more good than the grants, and the real test is whether Washington knows when to stop.

  4. Export controls · Warren

    The silicon curtain

    America’s sweeping new chip controls on China make strategic sense, but unlike the cold war’s embargo they have only one government behind them

  5. Meta and EU data transfers · Warren

    A fine mess

    Ireland’s record fine on Meta punishes a company for a conflict that only governments can settle, and Europe should fix the treaty, not fine the tenant.

  6. Europe’s Digital Markets Act · Warren

    Judge the DMA by rivals’ gains

    Brussels was right to name its gatekeepers, but it should be judged on whether rivals win customers, not on how many rules the six firms obey

  7. Biden and artificial intelligence · Warren

    Biden’s AI order is half right

    Mr Biden’s AI order is sensible where it asks developers to show their homework and hollow where it pretends a presidential pen can do Congress’s job.

  8. Europe’s AI Act · Warren

    Europe legislates ahead of the products

    Europe has passed the world’s first comprehensive AI law, and its test is whether rules written before the products existed can bind the firms that make them.

  9. America and TikTok · Warren

    Write rules for all foreign apps

    Congress was right to make ownership the issue with TikTok, but it should have written a rule for every foreign-owned app and not a statute with one name on it.

  10. California and AI regulation · Warren

    Newsom was right to veto SB 1047

    Gavin Newsom was right to veto a bill that regulated AI by the size of the cheque, but wrong to leave the vacuum to a panel of experts

  11. America’s stablecoin law · Warren

    America’s stablecoin bargain is sound

    The GENIUS Act is a sound bargain, full reserves in exchange for legal certainty, and its real test will be how strictly the new regulators apply it.

  12. The H-1B fee · Warren

    Ration H-1B visas by wage, not fee

    A flat $100,000 fee on new H-1B petitions will cull the cheapest hires and poorest employers, when allocating by wage would target the abuse the White House cites.

Youth

  1. Pranjali Awasthi

    Delv.AI has a story, not yet a business

    A $450,000 raise by a 16-year-old founder shows that investors will bet on a story; it does not yet show that Delv.AI has a business.

  2. Young Americans and crypto

    Crypto is a young man’s hobby

    Crypto is not a youth movement but a young man’s hobby, and the best evidence says it has been shrinking since 2021.

  3. Roy Lee and Cluely

    Blame the technical interview, not the student

    A 21-year-old suspended by Columbia for cheating has raised $15m on the strength of an advertisement, and the more interesting defendant is the technical interview, not the student.

  4. Meme coins and the young

    Meme-coin platforms win, launchers lose

    Anyone with a phone can launch a meme coin, but only the platform reliably profits, while nearly everyone else, launchers included, is left with a token nobody wants.

  5. Teenage app builders

    AI apps build habits, not businesses

    Students building apps with AI are acquiring a useful habit and a modest line on a university application, and almost none of them are acquiring a business.

Huawei and TSMC. America’s new rule on Huawei’s chips is a clever weapon, but each use of it teaches the world to build around American tools Read more on America’s chip weapon wears out with use

Section 230. Mr Trump’s order asks a regulator to rewrite a law that Congress wrote plainly, and if it worked it would make platforms more cautious editors, not more neutral ones. Read more on Trump cannot rewrite Section 230 by order

AMD and Xilinx. AMD is right to pay in its own richly valued shares for Xilinx, and regulators should let a deal that makes Intel’s life harder go through. Read more on Let AMD buy Xilinx

Nvidia and Arm. Regulators were right to stop Nvidia buying Arm, but the next owner of a chip standard should be one that every rival can trust. Read more on Arm’s length

The CHIPS Act. America is right to pay for chip factories, but the tax credit will do more good than the grants, and the real test is whether Washington knows when to stop. Read more on Pay for fabs, then stop

Export controls. America’s sweeping new chip controls on China make strategic sense, but unlike the cold war’s embargo they have only one government behind them Read more on The silicon curtain

Meta and EU data transfers. Ireland’s record fine on Meta punishes a company for a conflict that only governments can settle, and Europe should fix the treaty, not fine the tenant. Read more on A fine mess

Nvidia. Nvidia’s guidance proves the AI boom is real, but no single supplier should be priced as if it owns the whole of it. Read more on Nvidia does not own the AI boom

Europe’s Digital Markets Act. Brussels was right to name its gatekeepers, but it should be judged on whether rivals win customers, not on how many rules the six firms obey Read more on Judge the DMA by rivals’ gains

Arm’s flotation. Arm’s return to the stockmarket is a fair price for a great business, but SoftBank is selling a toll road with a lot of its traffic in one lane. Read more on Arm is fairly priced but lopsided

Biden and artificial intelligence. Mr Biden’s AI order is sensible where it asks developers to show their homework and hollow where it pretends a presidential pen can do Congress’s job. Read more on Biden’s AI order is half right

Pranjali Awasthi. A $450,000 raise by a 16-year-old founder shows that investors will bet on a story; it does not yet show that Delv.AI has a business. Read more on Delv.AI has a story, not yet a business

Europe’s AI Act. Europe has passed the world’s first comprehensive AI law, and its test is whether rules written before the products existed can bind the firms that make them. Read more on Europe legislates ahead of the products

America and TikTok. Congress was right to make ownership the issue with TikTok, but it should have written a rule for every foreign-owned app and not a statute with one name on it. Read more on Write rules for all foreign apps

AI and electricity. Microsoft’s Three Mile Island restart is the right way for a data centre to buy power, and regulators should make it the rule so households stop footing the bill. Read more on Make data centres buy their own power

California and AI regulation. Gavin Newsom was right to veto a bill that regulated AI by the size of the cheque, but wrong to leave the vacuum to a panel of experts Read more on Newsom was right to veto SB 1047

OpenAI’s funding round. OpenAI’s investors are paying a record price for a company that does not yet make money, and have written a fallback into the contract. Read more on OpenAI’s investors pay up and hedge

Intel’s chief executive. Pat Gelsinger’s departure leaves Intel with the same problem and two interim bosses, and the board should use the gap to split the firm. Read more on Intel’s board should split the firm

Stargate and AI spending. Stargate’s $500bn is a promise, not a budget, and America should judge it by the data centres that get built and keep Washington out of the cheque-writing Read more on Judge Stargate by what gets built

DeepSeek and Nvidia. A cheap Chinese model has rattled the AI trade, but it makes computing cheaper rather than pointless, and the bill for the boom will still be paid Read more on Less is Moore

TSMC in Arizona. Tariff-driven factory pledges buy goodwill and a headline, not wafers, so Washington should demand schedules and count each dollar once. Read more on Count the wafers, not the pledges

CoreWeave and the AI-cloud trade. CoreWeave’s cut-price flotation is a fair test of whether renting out Nvidia chips is a business or merely a boom, and one customer is sitting the exam for it. Read more on CoreWeave tests the AI-cloud business

Young Americans and crypto. Crypto is not a youth movement but a young man’s hobby, and the best evidence says it has been shrinking since 2021. Read more on Crypto is a young man’s hobby

Roy Lee and Cluely. A 21-year-old suspended by Columbia for cheating has raised $15m on the strength of an advertisement, and the more interesting defendant is the technical interview, not the student. Read more on Blame the technical interview, not the student

Meme coins and the young. Anyone with a phone can launch a meme coin, but only the platform reliably profits, while nearly everyone else, launchers included, is left with a token nobody wants. Read more on Meme-coin platforms win, launchers lose

America’s stablecoin law. The GENIUS Act is a sound bargain, full reserves in exchange for legal certainty, and its real test will be how strictly the new regulators apply it. Read more on America’s stablecoin bargain is sound

Chips and China. An export licence is a judgement about security, not a toll, and a government that takes 15% of what it permits has a reason to permit more. Read more on Duty free

Intel and the state. Washington’s stake in Intel should be a short loan of patience, with a public timetable to sell, not a permanent seat at the chipmaker’s table Read more on Government inside

The H-1B fee. A flat $100,000 fee on new H-1B petitions will cull the cheapest hires and poorest employers, when allocating by wage would target the abuse the White House cites. Read more on Ration H-1B visas by wage, not fee

Nexperia and the state. The Netherlands was right to stop Nexperia moving its crown jewels abroad, but should give the intervention a deadline and a proper legal home instead of a scarcity law. Read more on Dutch courage

Teenage app builders. Students building apps with AI are acquiring a useful habit and a modest line on a university application, and almost none of them are acquiring a business. Read more on AI apps build habits, not businesses