Analysis and commentary on the business of technology

The Bay Table

Columns

Giannini

Business and finance, after A.P. Giannini, the San Francisco banker who lent to the people other banks ignored.

Initial public offerings

Bankers still cannot price startups

Figma’s dazzling debut shows that public investors want good startups, and that bankers still struggle to price them.

Reddit’s IPO

Reddit lets users in, not in charge

Reddit was right to let its users buy in, but a flotation that leaves control with insiders is a poll in which only some votes count.

Instacart’s IPO

The IPO window opens, at a price

Instacart’s listing proves that the window for technology flotations is open again, but only for firms willing to accept what the market will pay.

Silicon Valley Bank

A run for their money

Washington was right to protect SVB’s depositors, but startups should learn the lesson that rescue cannot teach them.

FTX

Token gesture

FTX’s collapse needs no new crypto law, only the enforcement of old rules about whose money is whose, and a little more suspicion from investors.

Venture capital

The venture boom rests on cheap money

Startups have raised more in nine months than in any full year before, and the boom rests on a price of money that is about to change.

Coinbase’s listing

Going direct

Coinbase has shown that a company can go public without paying a bank to guess its price, but the first day showed how much guessing the market itself does.

SPACs and the SEC

Let the SPAC boom cool

The SEC staff’s warrant ruling is a footnote with teeth, and the SPAC boom should be allowed to cool under it.

Retail trading

Short changed

Robinhood’s curbs on GameStop were forced by plumbing, not conspiracy, but a market whose settlement lags its apps has no business promising instant access.

Quibi

Quibi never asked its audience

Quibi’s failure is not a verdict on short video but on a business that spent $1.75bn before asking anyone what they wanted.

WeWork

Out of office

The collapse of WeWork’s flotation is not a failure of public markets but their finest hour: investors read the prospectus and declined.

CoreWeave and the AI-cloud trade

CoreWeave tests the AI-cloud business

CoreWeave’s cut-price flotation is a fair test of whether renting out Nvidia chips is a business or merely a boom, and one customer is sitting the exam for it.

DeepSeek and Nvidia

Less is Moore

A cheap Chinese model has rattled the AI trade, but it makes computing cheaper rather than pointless, and the bill for the boom will still be paid

Intel’s chief executive

Intel’s board should split the firm

Pat Gelsinger’s departure leaves Intel with the same problem and two interim bosses, and the board should use the gap to split the firm.

OpenAI’s funding round

OpenAI’s investors pay up and hedge

OpenAI’s investors are paying a record price for a company that does not yet make money, and have written a fallback into the contract.

Arm’s flotation

Arm is fairly priced but lopsided

Arm’s return to the stockmarket is a fair price for a great business, but SoftBank is selling a toll road with a lot of its traffic in one lane.

Nvidia

Nvidia does not own the AI boom

Nvidia’s guidance proves the AI boom is real, but no single supplier should be priced as if it owns the whole of it.

Nvidia and Arm

Arm’s length

Regulators were right to stop Nvidia buying Arm, but the next owner of a chip standard should be one that every rival can trust.

AMD and Xilinx

Let AMD buy Xilinx

AMD is right to pay in its own richly valued shares for Xilinx, and regulators should let a deal that makes Intel’s life harder go through.

Alphabet’s capital return

Alphabet’s cash outgrew its ideas

Alphabet’s first dividend says less about a maturing firm than about a cash pile that outgrew its owner’s ideas for it.

Microsoft’s market value

Microsoft’s valuation rests on a chatbot

Investors have priced Microsoft as the winner of the AI race, yet the prize still depends on customers paying $30 a month for a chatbot.

Meta’s year of efficiency

Meta’s efficiency still lacks a purpose

Investors have rewarded Meta for spending less, which is sensible, but efficiency is a means and the firm has yet to say what it is for.

Twitter and Elon Musk

No owner can fix Twitter’s business

Mr Musk has paid full price for a loss-making firm whose customers can leave at will, and no change of ownership will fix that.

Broadcom and VMware

VMware’s customers will pay for Broadcom

Broadcom’s $61bn price for VMware is hard to earn back without raising bills, so regulators should ask whether customers can walk away.

Amazon’s succession

Amazon’s succession follows the money

Jeff Bezos has picked the man who built the firm’s profits, and the choice says more about where Amazon earns its money than about who will run it.

Salesforce and Slack

Let Salesforce buy Slack

Regulators should wave through Salesforce’s $27.7bn purchase of Slack, which adds a serious rival to Microsoft; the price is a matter for Salesforce’s shareholders.

Microsoft and OpenAI

Microsoft’s OpenAI bet is a cloud order

Microsoft’s $1bn bet on OpenAI is less a punt on thinking machines than a prepaid order for its own cloud, and that makes it a shrewd one